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Predicting Ovarian-Cancer Burden in Catalonia by 2030: An Age–Period–Cohort Modeling

https://tinyurl.com/myc5rtkb

 

         Sometimes when engaged in the day-to-day management of serious disease it is important to consider the future and the impact of change. This article is a statistical review of current trends in the incidence of ovarian cancer and a prediction of future numbers.

         In recent times there has been a pleasing gradual reduction in the number of women who contract ovarian cancer. Thought to be due to two major factors; increased use of hormonal contraception and less postmenopausal hormone therapy, this decrease has been noted worldwide.

         However, there is a concerning rise in the incidence of ovarian cancer for women born during the 1980s. The article documents this shift amongst the population of Catalonia. Thus far a cause has not been determined, one possible factor is the prevalence of obesity. Also, change in survival due to new maintenance therapy will result in a delayed, hopefully short time, increase in mortality. Planning for these changes should commence now.




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